I am optimistic about certain areas, so I thought I would write (a rather longgg 🥱) post about some themes of the next decade and explain thematic investing.

Thematic investing has gained significant attention over the past few years, particularly through thematic ETFs. A thematic ETF is a fund that contains a selection of companies related to a specific theme. For instance, a cybersecurity ETF consists of companies that operate within the cybersecurity sector or benefit from this overall theme. Instead of investors handpicking a few individual stocks, they can choose an overall fund, gaining exposure to the “Big Idea” while reducing stock selection risk to some degree.

While I appreciate thematic investing, I am less favourable towards thematic ETFs. Identifying trends and determining how to invest accordingly is not easy. The “Big Idea” refers to the overarching theme connected to a specific idea, trend, or megatrend.

Currently, one of the most prominent themes is Artificial Intelligence (AI). The big idea is that AI will drive growth across various sectors over the next decade, influencing the market, the economy, and the employment landscape. Technological advancements are rapidly evolving, and investors may want to gain exposure to these booming sectors.

A theme can be anything that an investor identifies independently or a shared idea that many follow. Some themes can be mere hype, while others are more substantial. As with all investing, there are pros and cons to thematic investing; investors can become overly exposed or overly attached to a theme.

Themes can be driven by many factors…

I believe it is crucial to identify themes that you think will play an important role in the future and then look for ways to gain exposure to them independently. I practice thematic investing because it aligns with my unique circumstances, such as travelling and being exposed to different ideas, economies, and cultures, which shape my beliefs and ideologies.

The themes I’ve outlined are ones I am currently focusing on and positioning for over the next decade, alongside other trending themes and “Big Ideas” that I believe in but am still researching.

Thematic investing can be high-risk; if you identify a theme with hundreds of companies connected to it, the fundamental analysis can become quite complex, as it should when searching for winners.

I utilise themes as a top-down approach, and once I identify certain sectors or beneficiaries within each theme, I revert to my traditional bottom-up fundamental analysis. I am optimistic about certain areas, so I thought I would write about some themes for the next decade.

Identifying the “Big Ideas”

Themes can be created by analysing trends in the market, the economy, consumer behaviour, sector cycles, and future ideas that “could” potentially play out. I say “could” because megatrends and future themes don’t always materialise as anticipated. Focusing too heavily on a particular theme can be risky for a portfolio.

There have been instances where themes didn’t unfold as investors expected. To identify a significant idea, investors need to conduct thorough due diligence and research to analyse the opportunity and determine how to capitalise on it.

Cycles can also serve as themes, such as the housing boom in Australia, which occurs periodically and lasts a couple years, or an infrastructure boom tied to government spending and nation-building initiatives. Themes don’t always have to be grand concepts like flying cars or space tourism. While those ideas are intriguing, successfully pursuing them can be very challenging.

AI is a complex theme to navigate. Regardless of your understanding of the AI sector and its implications, it’s crucial to recognise that power and data centres are vital components, making these areas potentially better investments for capturing sector growth.

💭 Think big but with common sense…

To truly connect with an idea, one must be able to visualise opportunities that others may overlook or that might not seem appealing to other investors. For example, banking and finance in developed countries are often seen as stable blue-chip investment classes. However, in emerging markets, fintech, banks, and finance companies are thriving because they are attracting a new wave of customers who are banking for the first time. Being based in one country may blind you to certain trends that are unfolding elsewhere.

As I travel primarily through emerging and developing countries, my perspective is often different, leading me to focus on themes related to these experiences.

I encourage you to ask questions: Where do you see the world transitioning? What ideas do you believe will come to fruition? Which companies will step up and rise to the occasion?

One thing is certain: The themes and winners of the last decade may not be the driving forces of the next decade.

💡 Themes of the next decade 2025-2035.

The main theme that will drive the next decade and beyond is the digitisation of everything. Technology will impact all aspects of our lives in some way, shape, or form. The ideas that will come and the new norm of how we will engage will probably be a complete surprise to us. Think back 10 years, I never anticipated the rapid growth of technology and how it has infiltrated every corner of the world.

While I am optimistic about technology, I have an equal interest in non-tech sectors. As a capitalist, I support human innovation and encourage entrepreneurs to rise to the challenge of solving complex problems. As investors, we aim to back these initiatives and reap the rewards.

My investment themes are influenced by my own outlook on markets and geographies, so I do not recommend that others simply follow them.

KEY THEMES:

These are the core themes that interest me and that I am currently observing. Some of these themes are specifically related to emerging markets I have travelled to or watching, such as India, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa. Larger themes, like artificial intelligence and technological advancements, are naturally focused on companies in developing countries.

This is not due to bias; rather, it’s because these regions are prominent for tech startups going public, resulting in a greater pool of publicly listed investment opportunities. Many great tech companies in other geographies that address future themes remain private and typically pursue funding through private equity or venture capital.

Cybersecurity sector.

💡 Big Idea:

The global cybersecurity market size is projected to grow to $562.72 billion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14.3%. The underlying principle is clear: as our reliance on the internet and data increases, so do the opportunities for cyberattacks. As technology advances, new methods of fraud continue to emerge. Cybersecurity is the foundation of all future digitisation and technological development. Without adequate protection, our data, accessibility, and reliance on the internet, cloud services, the Internet of Things (IoT), and other connected devices remain at risk.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

The cybersecurity space encompasses a variety of sub-sectors. One significant segment is the solutions sector, which includes products such as firewalls, antivirus software, VPNs, antimalware tools, identity access management, and data loss prevention. Software primarily drives this area as a Service (SaaS) offerings.

Another major part of the cybersecurity landscape is the services sector. This includes managed security services, service providers, specialised expertise, hack protection, physical security testing, enterprise risk assessment, and penetration testing. In fact, the services sector constitutes the largest segment of the cybersecurity market.

Additionally, there is the deployment sector, which covers both on-premises and cloud-based solutions. The cloud segment is expected to continue its rapid expansion, as cloud-based solutions enable SMEs to remain protected as they grow.

⚠️ Risks:

The risk to investors lies not necessarily in the cybersecurity sector itself, but in the broader investment landscape. There are numerous cybersecurity companies to choose from, so selecting those that can excel in the competitive environment is crucial. It’s important to focus on business models that are less likely to be disrupted by future technological advancements, as well as to consider how dependent their clients are on their services.

FMCG (Fast Moving Consumer Goods)

💡 Big Idea:

FMCG, also known as consumer packaged goods (CPG) or convenience goods, refers to products that are in high demand, sold quickly, and affordably priced. The FMCG sector is quite extensive, and I am particularly interested in its dynamics in emerging and developing countries such as India, Southeast Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, Brazil, and China. As more people rise out of poverty and the middle class rapidly expands, the demand for FMCG will continue to grow. Brands and products that can serve this expanding segment of the population are likely to experience robust revenue growth over the coming decade

📊 Sub-Sectors:

FMCG segments include food and beverages such as snacks, confectionery, alcoholic drinks, juices, dairy products, and frozen goods. The personal care and beauty sector is also significant, encompassing shampoos, skincare products, cosmetics, and grooming items. Additionally, household essentials such as cleaning products (detergents, air fresheners, and toilet paper) fall under this category.

Healthcare products, including over-the-counter drugs, vitamins, pharmaceuticals, and supplements like protein powders, are also part of the FMCG landscape. Lastly, automotive products—such as lubricants, car care items, and accessories—represent a booming market, particularly in the aftermarket auto parts sector. I would also include sporting and fitness items, including gym equipment and apparel, can also be classified as FMCG.

⚠️ Risks:

Identifying the winners in this large segment is challenging. Success relies on finding products and brands with deep networks and supply chains capable of serving a vast population. The industry is highly competitive, with trends changing rapidly. It is essential to look for well-established companies that have high margins, and strong balance sheets, allowing them to withstand volatility in various economic climates. This sector is largely influenced by consumer spending; in periods of high inflation, spending is often curtailed, impacting revenue streams significantly.

The 4th Industrial Revolution.

💡 Big Idea:

The 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR) is a significant theme that encompasses many different segments. I have chosen to focus on AI as a distinct segment, even though it falls under 4IR. The 4th Industrial Revolution represents the integration of digital, physical, and biological systems. Over the past decade, it has been a major driving force behind technological advancements and innovations. These changes are occurring rapidly and are disrupting entire ecosystems and traditional business practices.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

4IR encompasses several key technologies, including Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS), which enable real-time data processing for smart factories and autonomous systems. The Internet of Things (IoT) refers to the interconnection of everyday objects and devices through the internet. Cloud Computing provides scalable and flexible computing resources online.

Advanced Robotics is transforming manufacturing and other industries by automating tasks. Big Data refers to the ability to collect, store, and analyse vast amounts of information, which is crucial for making informed decisions.

Blockchain technology offers secure and transparent methods for recording transactions and managing digital assets. Advanced Manufacturing Technologies, such as 3D printing and additive manufacturing, are revolutionising the production of goods by enabling greater customization.

Human-machine interaction (HMI) focuses on developing interfaces that allow humans to interact more naturally and effectively with machines. Additionally, Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) technologies are used to enhance human experiences and interactions with applications.

⚠️ Risks:

The risks in this sector are significant. R+D is capital-intensive, and the reliance on pre-revenue models combined with technologies that have yet to be tested at scale creates a high-risk investment environment. This industry resembles VC in its approach, and time will reveal which companies will emerge as winners among the many contenders. Additionally, it remains to be seen which technologies will struggle and ultimately fail to gain adoption.

AI (Artificial Intelligence)

💡 Big Idea:

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a branch of computer science focused on developing machines that can perform tasks typically requiring human intelligence, such as learning, problem-solving, decision-making, and comprehension. AI systems learn from large amounts of data, identifying patterns to enhance their performance over time. This technology allows machines to simulate human cognitive abilities, automate tasks, and solve problems more efficiently.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

Common AI applications include speech recognition, image recognition, content generation, recommendation systems, and self-driving cars. The below segments can benefit from AI.

Healthcare & Life Sciences: AI aids in medical diagnosis, personalised treatments, and big data management, improving disease detection. Education: AI enhances learning with personalised paths and automates administrative tasks. Finance: AI supports fraud detection, forecasting, and risk assessment by identifying trends and anomalies in financial data.

Manufacturing: AI optimises production through predictive maintenance and quality control, reducing downtime by monitoring machine performance. Energy: AI optimises energy consumption and demand prediction, improving the management of renewable sources based on weather patterns. Security and Surveillance: AI analyses surveillance footage to detect unusual behaviours, aiding in crime prevention.

Human Resources: AI streamlines hiring by analysing candidate profiles, promoting informed decisions and reducing bias. Quantum Computing in combination with AI has driven demand for semiconductors. Renewable Energy: AI enhances renewable energy systems by optimising performance and predicting maintenance, contributing to lower carbon emissions.

⚠️ Risks:

The big risk to AI is seeing how it can be adopted, and monetised and how companies will use it to grow. We need to see concepts become reality. The impact of disruption is yet to be understood. Investing in the AI theme requires careful consideration of the companies that are adopting it, from those designing the technology to those using AI to improve operating efficiencies and systems.

Infrastructure spending.

💡 Big Idea:

Infrastructure spending, especially in emerging countries, is an area that particularly interests me. Having travelled to these countries, it’s evident just by looking around how rapidly cities are growing. At the heart of this growth is infrastructure. A visit to Vietnam, India, Indonesia, or Brazil reveals the extensive infrastructure investment that governments are making to foster national growth and transition toward developed status.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

For a nation to grow, infrastructure must be at the very core to meet increasing demands. Infrastructure consists of physical structures, including roads, railways, bridges, airports, public transit systems, tunnels, water supply systems, sewers, electrical grids, and telecommunications networks (such as Internet connectivity).

The infrastructure sector can be divided into several segments. These include engineering firms, building materials providers (such as concrete suppliers), procurement and construction companies, contracting firms, machinery and equipment suppliers. Public utilities, as well as docks, ports, and other critical infrastructure, are essential for the government to effectively manage exports and imports.

Telecommunications is also vital. As millions of people in emerging countries come online, substantial investment in telecommunications will be required to connect these new devices through data services and phone plans.

Generally, infrastructure can be categorised into three segments: soft infrastructure, which includes financial institutions, government agencies, and educational systems; hard infrastructure, such as roads, highways, tunnels, and train stations; and critical infrastructure, which encompasses agriculture, electricity, telecommunications, and public health like hospitals.

⚠️ Risks:

The sector is risky due to its cyclical nature and strong dependence on government spending and budget allocations. When seeking companies in the capital-intensive space, it is crucial to evaluate their balance sheets, project pipelines, and margins, which are often tight. Factors such as political stability, competitive risk, and the regulatory environment—including changing policies—are common challenges in emerging markets.

Energy and Power.

💡 Big Idea:

The energy sector is vast and will be a key theme for the next decade and beyond. As the demand for power and stable energy continues to grow, there is a need for more efficient, affordable, and innovative sources of energy. While the world transitions to green energy, coal, oil, and gas remain essential components of the energy landscape. The rise of AI and increased data usage places a significant demand on power and future energy needs. Energy encompasses more than just household electricity; it also includes electric vehicles and battery storage.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

There are many segments within the energy sector, ranging from traditional oil and gas providers to natural hydrogen gas and uranium nuclear power. Additionally, solar systems, wind power, battery manufacturers, and electric vehicle makers are all part of this landscape. I am optimistic about the potential of uranium and green hydrogen as alternative power sources, as well as the overall theme of electric vehicles being the future. Advances in battery storage technology will allow the energy sector to continue evolving. It is also important to understand the critical metals necessary for the growth of the energy industry.

The Energy Equipment and Services sub-sector includes companies that manufacture and provide equipment and services for the exploration, production, and transportation of oil, gas, and other energy resources.

Emerging markets present opportunities in public utilities and innovative energy solutions, as governments strive to meet the increasing power demand.

⚠️ Risks:

The energy sector faces significant risks, from exploration to refining, and transitioning to green energy is complex. Many countries still rely on coal and oil for electricity. It will be challenging to identify market leaders. Investing in critical metals presents its own set of challenges.

Healthcare and Aging Population.

💡 Big Idea:

Healthcare is a growing theme, particularly with the aging population, as people are living longer and society is becoming more health-conscious. Combined with advancements in technology and the increasing demand for public healthcare around the world, we can expect healthcare to be a booming sector for the next decade and beyond. In emerging countries, the challenges are evident: there is a lack of hospitals, beds, critical services, medical equipment, and essential medications. In developed countries, the growth in healthcare will be driven by innovation, sustainability, social care integration, and medical breakthroughs through research and development.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

The healthcare sector is vast and complex and can be broken down into a variety of sectors. Starting with Healthcare Providers and Services: This includes hospitals, clinics, urgent care centres, and other healthcare facilities.

Healthcare Equipment and Supplies: This sector involves the manufacturing and distribution of medical devices, diagnostic equipment, and various medical supplies. Pharmaceuticals: This sub-sector involves the development and manufacturing of prescription and over-the-counter medications. Biotechnology: This highly speculative industry focuses on the development of new drugs and therapies through genetic engineering and molecular biology

Healthcare Technology: This industry develops and implements software and IT systems for use in healthcare. Medical Devices: This industry makes products ranging from surgical gloves to artificial joints to imaging equipment, playing a crucial role in developing new medical technologies. Health Insurance: Focusing on processing patient eligibility, enrollment, claims, and reimbursement.

⚠️ Risks:

The risks in this sector vary from evaluating highly speculative companies to those that are developing important and essential medicines or services. The industry is characterized by disruption, and innovation occurs frequently. Identifying companies with strong fundamentals that can serve large total addressable markets is a wise approach to engaging with this theme.

Tourism and Travel.

💡 Big Idea:

The tourism and travel industry worldwide, particularly in emerging markets, is experiencing significant growth. This boom can be attributed to two key factors: the COVID-19 lockdowns, which left many people eager to make up for lost time, and the rising middle class in emerging countries that is eager to travel and explore the world. India and China are leading the charge in global tourism, and this trend is growing rapidly. As millions of middle-class Indians seek new experiences and adventures, India is on track to surpass China as the largest tourism market.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

The industry encompasses a wide array of segments, including airline companies (with necessary caution), airport operators, food catering services for the aviation industry, airplane manufacturers and parts suppliers, travel websites, travel apps, hotels, tour companies, bus, ferry, and cruise operators, boutique tour providers, and anything related to travel and tourism. This also extends to technology and SaaS companies that offer booking platforms and operational management systems for the industry. New airport operators in growing cities are expected to perform particularly well over the coming decade.

Domestic tourism in emerging markets is booming, with domestic hotels, bus operators, tour providers, travel booking sites, and companies aligned with this trend also experiencing growth.

⚠️ Risks:

However, like other cyclical businesses, the industry carries certain risks, including unexpected events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which can drastically impact the sector overnight. Therefore, it is essential to focus on companies with strong margins, growing revenue bases, and large total addressable markets (TAMs). It’s advisable to avoid capital-intensive and low-margin areas, such as running an airline. Emerging markets offer the best opportunities for exposure to this growing trend.

Defence spending.

💡 Big Idea:

Defence is an increasingly important theme. The world is becoming riskier, and geopolitical tensions are rising. Two recent wars, in Ukraine and Gaza, have highlighted the significance of defence. Many countries have become complacent with their defence spending. Given the constant threat of war, and with the new Trump 2.0 administration signaling a desire to withdraw from global policing, there will be increased pressure on allies and neighbouring countries to enhance their defence efforts. The costs associated with defence are likely to escalate in the coming years.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

The defence sector encompasses a variety of segments, including military vehicle manufacturers, weapons and ammunition producers, drone technology, and self-driving autonomous vehicles. There are significant advancements in technology designed for defence and surveillance, which are expected to grow in popularity.

Additionally, NATO has released a list of 12 critical metals that play an important role in the allied defence industry. These materials are essential for manufacturing advanced defence systems and equipment. Components are being made for tanks, aircraft, jet engines, missiles, submarines, and shipbuilding, among others.

The critical metals identified are: Aluminum, Beryllium, Cobalt, Gallium, Germanium, Graphite, Lithium, Manganese, Platinum, Rare Earth Elements, Titanium and Tungsten

Beyond equipment, there is a wide range of technology, surveillance tools, body gear, armour, protective equipment, and high-tech military gadgets. The aerospace sector is also a thriving area within defence.

⚠️ Risks:

One of the key risks is differentiating between companies that are crucial to the sector and those that offer interesting technology or ideas that have yet to be adopted at scale. There is an abundance of technology and defense-related startups, which can be speculative in nature. It is advisable to focus on companies with established track records in defense contracts and that can meet the rising demand.

Emerging Markets Real Estate.

💡 Big Idea:

Real estate in developed countries may not experience the same capital appreciation as the rapid growth seen in emerging and developing markets. Countries such as Brazil, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and those in Eastern Europe (particularly non-EU countries) have witnessed significant growth. This growth has been fueled by government infrastructure spending, which enhances city connectivity, as well as by a rising middle class that is increasingly demanding both affordable and luxury properties. The prospect of property ownership has never been higher in these regions.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

This sector can be divided into several categories, including property developers, building companies, and suppliers of building materials, particularly high-end furnishings like tapware, shower screens, tiles, and premium fittings. There are also companies that specialise in developing estates or large-scale land subdivisions, as well as engineering firms and consultancy businesses focused on urban planning and major developments.

Additionally, online real estate platforms that connect buyers, sellers, and brokers offer a lucrative opportunity within this theme. The model of more properties attracting more buyers, fosters a solid network effect. Subcategories that are expanding include engineering software, design software, billing and management software, along with facility management of apartment complexes.

Industrial and commercial properties will also benefit from this overall trend. Warehouse construction, and REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) specialising in these properties have experienced significant growth due to rising demand for quality warehouses.

⚠️ Risks:

However, risks are associated with selecting the right companies. Financial strength is crucial, as high levels of debt can severely hinder companies in this space. Location is key; it is essential to choose companies that focus on prime locations to ensure the success of their projects. It is also important to verify companies with proven track records of delivering for their customers.

Brand Loyalty.

💡 Big Idea:

Brand loyalty is an intriguing theme that I believe will play a significant role in future markets and consumer spending. This concept extends beyond just consumable products; it includes the preference for certain brands and products over others. This encompasses a wide range of categories, from lifestyle and wellness brands to tech gadgets, mobile phones, athletic footwear, travel companies, streaming services, and automobiles.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

While there is a limited sub-sector the overall theme can be seen across a lot of sectors within markets. Large consumables, FMCG, luxury goods, technology such as apps, and other products are sold globally. I’ve seen this theme in various subcategories from skincare to automotive 4wd parts like ARB out in Australia. Once a brand takes off and becomes dominant amongst its peers it is very challenging to crack into its target audience.

Brands that cultivate strong brand loyalty—will continue to dominate the market. Repeat business and long-term clients equate to sustainable recurring revenue and reduce the need to attract new customers. We have seen the dominance of stocks associated with powerful brands. They are not only high-quality companies, but their brand power is immense and valuable.

⚠️ Risks:

The challenge lies in identifying the intangible value of a brand and assessing how strong its competitive edge is against its peers. While trending brands are common, it is essential to distinguish between a long-term powerful brand and a fleeting trend. A brand trap exists when a brand appears to possess all the traits of a successful brand, including strong customer retention and word-of-mouth growth, yet its success is cyclical. When evaluating a brand, it’s important to look for YoY revenue growth that is not dependent on seasonal spending, as well as an increasing number of users, shoppers, customers, or subscribers.

Agriculture and Water Stability.

💡 Big Idea:

Agriculture and water are major themes I am exploring for the next decade and beyond. Demographic changes, such as significant population growth in emerging countries, are driving the demand for sustainable food production. Food and water security are essential to support the growing global population. Emerging countries are consuming more, but agriculture often struggles to keep up with this demand. Many countries are focusing on improving agricultural production capacity.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

The segments within agriculture are vast and diverse, ranging from companies that harvest and manage water rights and dams to traditional farmers selling wheat and basic commodities. I believe that investment-worthy opportunities will lie in the 4th Industrial Revolution and the technological advancements integrating new technologies into farming.

Areas such as precision agriculture, smart farming, biotechnology (including the creation of artificial fruits and vegetables), and advanced seed germination are all fascinating segments to consider. Additionally, machinery, farming equipment, and water irrigation systems play crucial roles in adding value to the agricultural sector.

Farmland and REITs that invest in large agricultural parcels will also appreciate in value over time. Fertiliser companies are expected to thrive as they meet the demand for creating new food sources, while nutritional soil and fertilisers will be increasingly required. This sector also encompasses supporting activities such as pesticides, seeds, processing, and livestock management.

Other agriculture categories include crop production, farm management services, aquaculture (seafood farming), floriculture, fruit and nut growing, and animal production.

⚠️ Risks:

The risks in this sector include challenges related to capital, balance sheet strength, demand and supply issues that influence basic commodity prices, competition, export and import concerns, trade wars, as well as natural disasters and conflicts that can further impact companies in this field.

FinTech (Financial Technology)

💡 Big Idea:

FinTech is a crucial theme for the next decade, driven by innovations from NeoBanks, Non-Banking Financial Corporations (NBFCs), apps, and exchanges that are reshaping traditional banking. While developed markets see established banks offering stable returns, the real growth potential lies in emerging markets, where many people are only just beginning to adopt digital financial solutions. As these populations transition from cash and conventional methods to online banking, the financial sector in these regions is poised for significant expansion. With a large portion of the population still unbanked, the demand for banks, NBFCs, and investment products is expected to flourish in the coming years.

📊 Sub-Sectors:

Traditional large-scale banks, both public and private, that are well-capitalised have shown tremendous returns over the past five years. Non-Banking Financial Corporations (NBFCs) are also growing rapidly, competing with banks on personal loans, home loans, car loans, and credit cards.

The rise of FinTech—including apps, neobanks, and digital payment solutions—continues to demonstrate robust growth. I am particularly optimistic about Asset Management Companies, mutual fund companies, and investment products in emerging markets.

Payment apps, along with emerging market payment solutions that enable transactions in rural areas without traditional banking, are expanding in places like Africa, India, and Brazil. Anyone with a mobile phone can make payments, which is transformative.

⚠️ Risks:

Well-capitalised banks with low debt-to-equity ratios, strong balance sheets, and solid book values, along with well-regulated markets to prevent banking collapses, are crucial. For FinTech and high-growth technology businesses, important factors to consider include data protection, fraud prevention, the strength of the business model, and competitive advantages in a crowded market. The size (TAM) of the opportunity can indicate long-run growth potential. However, this sector is often highly valued, so it’s essential to emphasise quality and underlying fundamentals to avoid overpaying.

🔑 The Key Takeaway…

While this list is not exhaustive or in-depth, it outlines the most important themes for the next decade, in my opinion. I am optimistic and biased toward emerging markets with many of these themes (if you couldn’t tell). Although the US and other developed markets have outperformed emerging markets as a whole over the past couple of decades, this is largely based on indexes. When it comes to individual stock selection, I have found that traditional industries in emerging markets present fantastic multi-bagger investment opportunities.

I maintain this optimistic outlook because I travel extensively to these areas. However, I don’t solely invest in emerging markets. For example, in the fintech sector, if I find the best-in-class neo-bank in London or NASDAQ, I will invest in it if it surpasses one in India. When targeting a theme, I want to identify the best available options.

Thematic investing can be tricky. As a fundamental bottom-up investor, I invest based on specific criteria regardless of a theme. If a company meets the criteria I am looking for, I am interested regardless of its location or sector. Thematic investing has taken a larger role in my strategy as I recognise certain themes with tailwinds and long-term potential.

Even if I am very optimistic about a theme, my criteria, fundamentals, and investment process ensure I don’t get carried away by that bias.

Each of these themes is significant in its own right. I focus on picking one or two winners from each theme to ensure I gain exposure to what I believe will generate profit.

Over the next decade, I expect these core themes and megatrends to play a major role in shaping markets, economies, and, consequently, investor returns.

🎯 Happy Hunting…